I have the impression that among the leftist commentators, the specter of the coming crisis is welcomed with hope. After all, if it is sufficiently large, it may even overturn all capitalism. But I would dare say, that is not the smartest attitude.
Ironically - it will be a text about the economic crisis. What's ironic? The fact that in the previous text about Warren Buffett’s opportunism, I almost argued that there would probably be no crisis (at most an economic slowdown). What made me change my mind? Of course, the latest numbers of the coronavirus, which turned out to be much more of a shock to me than initially announced. I now have this growing impression that among the leftist commentators the specter of the coming crisis is welcomed with hope. After all, if it is sufficiently large, it may even overturn all capitalism. This is not the smartest attitude, because the crisis itself, as usual, will hit the poorest the hardest. First things first.
Coronavirus’ mortality ( SARS-CoV-2 ) is still debatable. Based on data from the beginning of March, the World Health Organization estimated it at about 3.4 %. This means that for every 1000 infected people 34 die. However, there is a problem with this number. It was simply a calculation of the percentage of people who died as a result of coronavirus disease or from the number of people who were known to be infected. Only it was clear from the beginning that people who had SARS-CoV-2 were not all really infected with this virus. Some people may have had an almost asymptomatic infection. So such people did not report to hospitals. Real mortality can, therefore, be much lower.
For example, if we consider the number of Germany, the mortality rate is currently between 0.2 and 0.14 % (depending on what calculation model we use). This is only seemingly very good news. Because at least two variables are important: the long incubation period and the fact that some groups undergo coronavirus-induced disease much more severely than others.
The first, with no symptoms at the same time or with the symptoms of a common cold, means that the carrier can infect others for about two weeks. The second is very bad news for our parents, grandparents and people who already have some health problems. According to WHO data, mortality among people aged 70-79 is already 8 %, and among people over 80 years of age almost 15 %. Even if they are overstated data, we cannot underestimate them.
It is the uncertainty and atmosphere of the extraordinary public health emergency service, and the high infectivity with (almost) no symptoms in one group, combined with the severe passing of the disease in another that can be a series of circumstances that at some point simply clogs the health infrastructure. Such a scenario is definitely not improbable today.
Health care has its efficiency. Only a limited number of patients can be admitted. After exceeding this critical mass, patients do not receive adequate care, so their chance of recovery worsens. Not only that, this situation means that patients who develop other diseases, for example, have a heart attack, have difficult access to immediate help and medical services.
What can you do about these facts? It is best to cut off potential outbreaks of the virus. So: close the areas where the virus spreads the most, cancel mass events during which the risk of infection increases. This is what China did, cutting off Wuhan's 11-million city, where the epidemic began. Similar steps are now being introduced by Italy, where almost 700 people die daily on average due to coronavirus’ peak. For comparison: around 8700 people die every year on British roads. Let's emphasize again: annual road mortality and a two-week coronavirus harvest. This cannot be underestimated. The example of Italy shows that a combination of several factors: some institution weakness, undisciplined society and errors, which we will probably find out in a few months or years, can lead to a serious situation.
Not only the authorities of different countries are watching all this, but also ordinary people. Governments limit the mobility of citizens, and those, fearing for their own and their loved ones' health, limit exits and activities. Cut off from the world, China also cut its supply chains. Not only has a large part of our electronics hanged on Chinese production, but also the salaries and work of our fathers and sisters, suppliers and sellers. If stocks run out (and this is likely), then the entire industry will be in trouble. And layoffs are coming in with industry trouble.
Let's go further: first of all caution (at the moment, seemingly just a responsible attitude; the consequences of carelessness and nonchalance we see in the example of Italy and it would be good if we do not imitate them), social distancing and less frequent visits to pubs or at local bazaars. This means an overall means we can expect a decrease in demand and thus, less money left in stores and less money left in stores means less work and money for pay-outs.
Added to this is tourism, which is already known to be going through a tremendous crisis. Thus, coronavirus attacks the economy from two sides: on the supply side (Chinese production), and on the demand side (reduction of purchases).
Each subsequent destabilized element of the socio-economic structure increases the risk of a domino effect. If the problem were with one or two industries, it probably would not have happened. But coronavirus infects a lot of them. It is uncertain whether one of the sectors will cascade into another, seemingly completely unrelated to the epidemic.
Of course, this does not mean that the economic crisis we have does not affect the ‘hard capitalist’. This means that the system goes into a phase of instability and with each day the probability that "somehow it will be gone" decreases.
All this happens at a very unfortunate moment. There have been talks of an economic slowdown for months. For example, British GDP grew at a rate of over 2 % two years ago. At the end of last year, the European Commission forecasted an increase of 2.3% for the United Kingdom in 2020. Now more institutions are correcting (not only ours) growth forecasts.
All an all, this pandemic brings more sorrow to the ever-affected poor than one would have imagined at the beginning of this crisis. No one believed the stock markets to crash like a stone in the fore coming months when we saw apprehensive faces of Chinese authorities in December 2019.
Perhaps it is the price we are paying for the negligence or lack of foresightedness? But then again, who is paying that price? The same-ever affected, poor!
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